IEA WEO 2025: Electrification as the most profitable and secure route to the energy future

Electrification stops being a trend to become a solid path for value creation. The IEA WEO 2025 confirms: replacing fossil fuels with clean electricity is simultaneously more profitable and safer for households, businesses, and cities.

This practical guide shows how to turn this vision into clear steps for your home, articulating costs, comfort, resilience, and technical choices that work in everyday life.

Short on time? Here’s the gist:
✔️ Point 🔎 Summary
✅ Electrification = lower total cost Heat pumps, solar, and electric vehicles reduce expenses and exposure to fuel volatility.
✅ Smart grid at home 📶 Time control, batteries, and V2G cut consumption peaks and take advantage of lower rates.
✅ Avoid technological lock-ins 🚫 Don’t invest in “temporary” fossil systems. Ready for heat pump, photovoltaic, and charger now.
✅ Bonus: comfort and air quality 🌿 Well-executed electrification brings stable temperature, less noise, and cleaner air.

IEA WEO 2025: why electrification is the most profitable and safe route

Electrification means shifting end uses of energy — heating, mobility, processes — to efficient electric technologies powered by low-carbon sources. The central message of the IEA WEO 2025 is crystal clear: this change reduces total costs and cuts risks, especially in contexts of geopolitical volatility and fuel price shocks.

In economic terms, what matters is the total cost of ownership. Electric technologies convert energy with far fewer losses. A modern heat pump delivers three to four units of heat for each unit of electricity consumed. This “efficiency lever” is structural, does not depend on subsidies, and withstands time. Even when electricity prices rise, efficiency softens the bill.

Furthermore, electrification opens the door to self-consumption. Rooftops with photovoltaics lower the marginal cost of electricity throughout the day. By adding simple load control (scheduling DHW or car charging for sunshine hours), the home transforms into a small “energy operator,” benefiting from hourly prices and self-production. The WEO 2025 emphasizes that this demand-side flexibility is the new “invisible energy” of the system.

In terms of security, the logic is straightforward: the less you depend on gas and imported fuels, the more predictable your bill is. Electricity generated by wind and solar is domestic, with costs disconnected from oil and gas. This mitigates external shocks and reduces the transmission of volatility to consumers. By 2026, several European markets will have already seen solar hour electricity cost a fraction of peak night prices, a sign of abundance that the WEO 2025 projects as a trend.

There is also a positive regional effect. Replacing gas boilers with heat pumps mobilizes local installers, electricians, and manufacturers. It creates a close value chain, more skilled jobs, and greater income retention in the economy. The WEO 2025 highlights that these transitions, when accompanied by technical training and clear standards, drive innovation in materials, bioclimatic architecture, and domestic digitalization.

To be concrete, think of the “Largo House,” a T3 of 110 m² in a 1990s building, with gas for DHW and heating. By installing an air-water heat pump, reinforcing insulation in the roof, and adding 3 kW of photovoltaics, consumption peaks vanish. The old shock of winter bills turns into a smooth curve, with consistent savings and quiet comfort. The family maintains routines but feels the air more stable and less dry.

The WEO 2025 does not sell miracles. It insists on planning, prioritizing structural gains, and avoiding short-term investments in technologies that will be stuck with rising costs. It is this prudence — efficiency + electrification + flexibility — that makes the route the most profitable and safe.

Key takeaway: when electric efficiency is structural, time works in your favor.

discover in iea weo 2025 how electrification stands out as the most profitable and safe route to ensure a sustainable and innovative energy future.

Practical electrification in homes: heat pumps for heating, cooling, and DHW

Heat pumps are the heart of residential electrification according to the IEA WEO 2025. They deliver heating, cooling, and hot water with a single system, utilizing ambient energy. The key is to size properly, match the building’s envelope, and control by zones and schedules.

Correct system choice

For apartments or houses in mild climates, an air-water heat pump connected to low-temperature fan coils is usually the balanced solution. In existing buildings, high-efficiency air-air units for daytime areas enhance results with contained investment. In homes with underfloor heating, low-temperature models shine in comfort and efficiency.

The secret lies in the flow rates and temperatures. Working with supply at 35–45 ºC reduces consumption and improves the COP. Existing radiators can work if sized for low temperature; otherwise, discreet fan coils solve the problem. An experienced installer checks thermal losses, flows, and hydraulic balance before the final proposal.

DHW without shocks

Storage tanks with generous coils and auxiliary resistance rarely need the resistance connected. With smart scheduling, the pump heats the DHW when there is sun on the roof or a cheaper rate. Check valves, mixing valves, and well-placed sensors prevent lukewarm showers or scalding.

Envelope and ventilation matter

Electrifying without addressing the envelope is like putting an electric motor in a car with flat tires. Reinforcing the roof, air tightness, shading, and correcting thermal bridges gives strength to the heat pump. Add mechanical ventilation with heat recovery for clean air and reclaimed heat. Consumption drops, and comfort increases.

Realistic example: “Station Apartment”

Family of four, T2 of 85 m² facing south. Before: gas for DHW and oil heaters. After: dual-zone air-air heat pump + heat pump water heater + 2.4 kW photovoltaics. They scheduled DHW for noon and night comfort with maintenance temperature. Bills stabilized, and noise disappeared. Mornings no longer start with cold and dry air.

  • 🛠️ Check insulation in the roof and openings before sizing.
  • ⏱️ Schedule DHW and comfort in cheap time windows.
  • 🌞 Prioritize thermal loads when there’s sun on the roof.
  • 📏 Request thermal loss report; avoid “oversizing”.
  • 🧰 Ensure annual maintenance for efficiency and longevity.

When the heat pump operates at low temperatures, the magic happens: more comfort, less consumption.

If you are taking your first steps, an introductory video helps visualize hydraulic connections and control logic. Then, it’s worth delving into integration strategies with photovoltaics.

Electric mobility in WEO 2025: costs, home network, and value for the house

Electric cars are more than transportation: they become domestic energy assets. The WEO 2025 emphasizes the trio of predictable cost, simple maintenance, and synergy with the grid. The smart decision starts with the charger and time management.

Smart home charging

A 7.4 kW wallbox with dynamic control avoids breaker trips and leverages night rates. If you have photovoltaics, use solar excess modes to channel production to the vehicle’s battery. In an urban T1, 3.7 kW already covers 30–40 km/h of charging — more than enough for daily routine.

Rates and scheduling

Planning schedules is invaluable. With period rates, schedule 80–90% of SOC in a cheap window and reserve 10–20% to absorb sun in the afternoon. Integration with the calendar helps: the car is ready when needed, without paying peaks. Fewer peaks, more predictability.

V2G and V2H: growing potential

The WEO 2025 points to growth in Vehicle-to-Grid and Vehicle-to-Home solutions. In some regions, it’s already possible to discharge energy from the car to the home during peaks and then recharge during cheap hours. The math works especially well when the home has flexible loads like programmable DHW and air conditioning.

Example: “Pinhal House”

Row house with 5 kW of photovoltaics, smart wallbox, and a vehicle with a 60 kWh battery. Priority charging occurs between 2 AM and 6 AM. On sunny afternoons, the house first pulls DHW and then charges the car up to 70%. On network peak days, power limitation is activated, and the vehicle’s battery covers the washing machine and lighting. Bills lost spikes, and the sense of control grew.

  • 🔌 Reserve dedicated circuit and adequate protections.
  • 📲 Use wallbox app for scheduling and power limits.
  • 🌤️ Coordinate with photovoltaics to maximize self-consumption.
  • 🧮 Compare simple vs. bi-hourly/tri-hourly rates.
  • 🧯 Maintain ventilation in the charging area and clear signage.

When the car becomes an extension of your home, every kilometer also carries value for your comfort.

Learning the principles of V2G and V2H helps decide if it’s worth choosing a vehicle model and a charger already compatible with these energy return functions.

Networks, storage, and flexibility: preparing your building for the electrical system of 2026

Electrification is not just swapping equipment. It is preparing the domestic electrical infrastructure to manage loads, respond to hourly prices, and integrate thermal and electrical storage. The WEO 2025 sees the home as an active node in the grid: secure, efficient, and cooperative.

Electrical panel and metering

An updated panel with selective protections and circuit metering brings clarity. Knowing how much the heat pump, DHW, and charger consume helps fine-tune schedules and identify anomalies. Real-time metering, via clamps or smart meters, is cheap and powerful.

Electrical and thermal storage

Small batteries (3–10 kWh) smooth out peaks and store solar energy for the late afternoon. DHW tanks and thermal mass chillers do the same on the thermal side: they heat or cool when energy is cheap and make it available later. The WEO 2025 emphasizes these “price buffers” that live within your home.

Control by priorities

Define what is non-negotiable (refrigerator, essential lighting) and what can be shifted (laundry, DHW, charging). Simple controllers via contactor or domotic systems integrate everything. The goal is to reduce simultaneities without losing comfort.

Energy communities and microgrids

In buildings and neighborhoods, energy communities share production and benefits. A collective roof with photovoltaics and common management lowers costs and stabilizes the local grid. It’s the neighborhood scale multiplying the advantages of domestic electrification.

🔧 Solution 🎯 Main benefit 💡 Practical tip
Smart meter + app Visibility of consumption Alerts for peaks and deviations 🔔
Battery 5–10 kWh Arbitrate rate/solar Charge at noon or night 💸
DHW tank 200–300 L Store cheap heat Prioritize during solar hours 🌞
Dynamic charger Avoid trips Adjust to contracted power ⚙️

A prepared infrastructure is half the battle: the home stops reacting and starts commanding its energy profile.

Finances of electrification: closing the account with phases, incentives, and the right choices

The WEO 2025 shows that electrification pays off when guided by numbers and priorities. The starting point is simple: maximize efficiency, concentrate investment where there is the highest return, and take advantage of incentives. In 2026, European and national programs support heat pumps, thermal rehabilitation, and residential photovoltaics; the right combination accelerates the payback.

Step-by-step financial overview

Make an annual energy survey (thermal and electrical kWh). Estimate thermal losses and usage hours. Request two or three proposals with documented seasonal COP and projected load curve. Compare by total cost over 10–15 years, including maintenance, not just by initial investment.

If the budget is phased, follow this order: 1) affordable insulation and air tightness; 2) heat pump and DHW; 3) photovoltaics; 4) smart management, and if it makes sense, battery; 5) charger and, at an advanced step, V2H/V2G. Each phase adds value to the previous one and reduces the risk of regrets.

Rates and contracts

Negotiate contracted power in light of the new profile. In many homes, managing simultaneities allows for reducing power without losing comfort. Bi/tri-hourly rates, combined with scheduling, create daily arbitrage that is felt on the bill.

Materials and maintenance

Opt for equipment with local support and standard parts. Filters, cleanings, and annual checks of the refrigeration circuit preserve the COP. In terms of materials, prefer natural insulations where possible (cork, cellulose) and windows with studied solar factors for your climate. Durability is part of the financial return.

Case study: “Ribeira House”

120 m² home from the mid-80s. Phase 1: roof and critical openings insulation. Phase 2: air-water heat pump + 250 L DHW tank. Phase 3: 4 kW photovoltaics + dynamic charger. In 18 months, the house went from unpredictable winter bills to a stable profile, with improved comfort and reduced peaks. The investment was diluted and each phase brought immediate gains.

  • 📊 Model scenarios with energy price and seasonality.
  • 🏷️ Check active incentives and technical requirements.
  • 🔁 Plan annual preventive maintenance.
  • 🧩 Avoid solutions that close doors to future upgrades.
  • 🧠 Use simple automation before investing in a large battery.

When the account closes on paper and in comfort, electrification stops being a bet and becomes standard.

Architecture, materials, and habits: silent multipliers of electrification

Efficiency does not come out of a box; it takes shape in design, materials, and use. The WEO 2025 places load reduction at the center of strategy: the less energy the house demands, the stronger and more profitable electrification becomes.

Bioclimatic design and inertia

Well-dimensioned shades, night cross ventilation, and thermal mass in the right place create stability. An internal wall of high inertia behind south-facing glazing stores heat in winter and slows peaks in summer. Small gestures in the design save kWh for decades.

Natural materials and air quality

Cork, cellulose, or wood insulations stabilize humidity, improve acoustic comfort, and reduce the carbon footprint. With mechanical ventilation and appropriate filters, indoor air gains quality, fewer allergens and odors. Electrical equipment benefits: they operate in a more stable regime.

Habits and tuning

Programming 1–2 ºC below/above during peak hours, running machines in cheap windows, and prioritizing DHW when there is sun are habits that add up. A control panel with three modes — comfort, eco, and absence — simplifies decisions and avoids tiring “micro-managements.” Automating the obvious frees up time and ensures consistency.

Small immediate roadmap

Today: install simple metering and identify two shiftable consumptions. This week: adjust schedules for DHW and laundry. This month: request a proposal for a heat pump with thermal loss calculation. Next quarter: evaluate photovoltaics and a charger prepared for excess. One step a week changes the year.

If you seek inspiration or practical guides for efficient envelopment, visit specialized resources like Ecopassivehouses.pt and create your solution notebook. A home that asks for less is a home that electrifies better.

Do something simple today: set schedules for two flexible loads. Tomorrow, your home will already be more aligned with smart electrification.

Source: www.iberdrola.com

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