The pace of new solar installations in Portugal has clearly slowed, decreasing by 21% compared to the previous year. This does not signal the end of solar energy, but it requires smarter decisions on when, how, and why to install.
| Short on time? Here’s the essential: | |
|---|---|
| ✅ | Installations fell by 21% and total approximately 1.7 GW in 2025, in a European context that is also decelerating 📉 |
| ✅ | Congested grid, weaker PPAs, and low wholesale prices are delaying new projects ⚡ |
| ✅ | For individuals, well-sized self-consumption and load management continue to be beneficial 💡 |
| ✅ | Bonus: prepare your home for the future with battery-ready, pre-wiring, and dynamic contracts 🔋 |
21% drop in installations: what has changed and how to adapt to the new solar energy cycle
The latest data indicates a slowdown: Portugal is expected to add 1.7 GW of new solar capacity this year, down from 2.1 GW the previous year (values in direct current). This is a pause following a cycle of accelerated expansion, which aligns with the European trend of stabilization.
In the European Union, annual additions fell to 65.1 GW (from 65.6 GW the previous year), marking the first decline since 2016. The residential segment has cooled the most, dropping from about 28% of new installations in 2023 to 14% now. The context is not one of technological regression, but of market maturity and the need for new rules and more infrastructure.
The national picture, however, still shows robust signs. The accumulated capacity reaches around 8.2 GW (44% decentralized and 56% large-scale), with Portugal ranking in the top 10 in Europe for annual growth. In parallel, renewable electricity accounts for approximately 77% of the mix, placing the country among the most advanced in Europe for clean energy.
Causes of slowdown: grid, contracts, and prices
The first brake comes from electrical grid congestion. There are projects ready or nearly ready, but awaiting infrastructure upgrades and connection points. At the same time, less activity in PPAs (long-term sale contracts) reduces predictability for investors, especially in utility-scale plants.
Add to this the drop in wholesale electricity prices, which pressures the profitability of new large-scale projects. The result is a backlog of licensed plans or those with assigned connections (about 20 GW), without execution at the desired pace.
The European mirror: champions, setbacks, and signs of rebalancing
Germany remains the leader, adding over 17 GW and accumulating around 119 GW. Spain added about 9.2 GW (total close to 55.4 GW), with more modest growth rates. France surprised with a 17% jump in new installations (more 6.7 GW), while Italy dropped 16% (around 5.2 GW added). Highlights include Romania (+45%) and Bulgaria (+34%), and the largest drop in the Netherlands (-34%).
In Portugal, the slowdown places the country below the peak of the previous year, but keeps it competitive in the European pack. Practically, there is less euphoria and more fine analysis of each decision, especially from the consumer’s side.
Realistic example: the Minho condominium
A condominium in Valença had planned for 40 kWp shared. The grid connection constraint led to a phased solution: first, shared self-consumption with 18 kWp, prioritizing daytime usage (pumping, gates, lighting), and only then the expansion to the east-facing roof. Result? Better self-consumption rate since day one and more stable return.
Key message: stepped projects and load management overcome the uncertainty of the grid. One step at a time, without waste.
Impact for homeowners: when it makes sense to install panels in 2025 and how to optimize return
For those considering their roof, the central question is not “has the market slowed down?”, but rather: “does my consumption profile justify the installation now?”. The answer depends on your usage curve, the tariff rates, and the ability to adjust habits to consume when there is sunlight.
In scenarios of lower wholesale prices, the value of energy injected into the grid decreases. Therefore, the key is self-consumption: consuming at the time of production. A system achieving 70–85% self-consumption maintains solid returns, even when selling to the grid is not as profitable.
Simple actions that change the equation
Scheduling the washing machine for solar hours, activating the water heater at noon, and charging the electric vehicle during periods of higher production are decisions that increase the self-consumption rate. These actions reduce the payback time without requiring more modules on the roof.
In a T3 with a bill of 90–120 €/month, a system from 3.6 to 4.5 kWp, microinverters, and a battery-ready structure is often the optimal point. The investment is controlled, production matches typical consumption, and future expansion is planned.
Comparative return example
| 🏠 Scenario | ⚡ System | 🔁 Self-consumption | ⏳ Estimated Payback |
|---|---|---|---|
| T3 coastal area | 3.6 kWp + microinverters | 75–80% | 6–8 years |
| House with EV | 5 kWp + solar wallbox | 80–85% | 5–7 years |
| Apartment with shared roof | 2–3 kWp shared | 60–70% | 7–10 years |
Estimates vary with consumption patterns, local radiation, and tariffs. The essential idea remains: size by consumption, not by available area, and prioritize flexibility.
- 🔌 Conduct a load assessment by hour (every 30 minutes if possible) to align production and consumption.
- 🧠 Choose inverters with monitoring and open APIs: data is money.
- 🛠️ Pre-wiring for batteries: even if you only install later, you’ll be prepared.
- 📈 Consider dynamic tariffs to take advantage of price variations.
If the goal is to save, start with the essentials: align the system with your profile. Then, evolve with batteries or intelligent charging when it makes sense.
Electrical grid, PPAs, and rules: how to unlock projects, communities, and trust
Residential and community projects benefit when the infrastructure and rules are clear. Strengthening the grid, digitalizing licenses, and transposing European directives are pieces of the same puzzle. While this is not fully achieved yet, much can be done at the local level.
On the system side, the priority is to approve and execute investment plans for the grid, ensure transparent connection agreements, and create flexibility markets where small producers and storage participate with fair remuneration.
Energy communities: the neighborhood as a renewable hub
Imagine a block in Leiria, with rooftops on three buildings and consumption at different times. An energy community allows for sharing production, increasing local utilization. With smart meters and simple rules, energy circulates among neighbors and the grid sees fewer peaks.
In Portugal, communities are gaining traction, but require simplification: standard contracts, digital platforms for joining, and tax clarity. When everything is predictable, more families join, investments become viable, and social benefits expand.
PPAs and businesses: anchor for trust
Small and medium businesses, schools, and homes can use on-site PPAs (on the roof) or virtual PPAs to stabilize costs. Even in a declining price context, a well-designed PPA reduces volatility and enables planning. The industry knows: predictability is as valuable as price.
For the end consumer, the parallel is simple: a long-term contract with a rate suitable for their profile creates peace of mind and speeds up return.
- 🧩 Digitalize licensing: fewer steps, more projects on the ground.
- 🔗 Accelerate connections to the grid with connection windows and public criteria.
- 🤝 Promote local dialogue to increase acceptance of projects.
- ⚖️ Transpose RED III and stabilize rules for communities and storage.
While the systemic framework adjusts, the level of the “roof” continues to offer concrete and immediate opportunities.
Project strategies for homes: taking advantage of the pause to build better and spend less
Major market shifts are exciting, but it’s during rebalancing phases that the best projects are made. With less pressure and more information, the design of your installation can be surgical: maximizing efficiency without overspending.
The trio that makes the difference: passive architecture, load management, and smart solar integration. By fine-tuning these three, the consumption base is reduced and the value of each kWh of solar increases.
Passive architecture and panel integration
Well-designed shading, cross-ventilation, and appropriate glass lower cooling peaks. Roofs with a pitch of 15–25º and south/southwest orientation provide good production throughout the year, while east/west roofs balance the daily curve and are ideal for continuous self-consumption.
In terms of aesthetics, modules with black frames are integrated, the fabric is adjusted, and technical passages are centralized to avoid visible cables. A project that respects the house enhances the property and reduces maintenance.
Load management and equipment that “communicate” with each other
Heat pumps with photovoltaic control, water heaters with modulated resistances, and wallboxes that optimize charging through surpluses transform production into real comfort. Energy meters in the electrical panel allow the inverter to know, every second, how to prioritize flows.
With these elements, even medium systems (3.6–5 kWp) can achieve high self-consumption rates without the immediate need for batteries. When they are installed, the rest of the ecosystem is already prepared.
Case study: Ana and Miguel, house in Évora
Ana and Miguel had consumption peaks at the end of the day. The project included 4.2 kWp on two slopes (east/west), a water heater with PV control, and a wallbox for “surplus-only”. In three months, the self-consumption rate rose to 82%, comfort improved, and the bill dropped without “overbuilding”.
Practical insights: monitor first, then size, and only then evolve with batteries. It’s the most efficient and economical path.
When the system is considered as a whole — house, habits, and technology — the market pause ceases to be a threat and becomes an opportunity.
Perspectives 2026–2030: goals, numbers, and smart decisions for your home
The European study projects Portugal towards around 19 GW installed by the end of the decade, slightly below the official target (approximately 20.8 GW). To reach this, an average installation of 3.5 GW/year would be necessary. It’s a challenge, but not a definitive brake for those considering their home’s roof.
There are levers at hand: hybridization of existing parks, repowering with more efficient panels, residential and commercial self-consumption, and new forms of participation like energy communities. Market maturity tends to separate the essential from the accessory and to value the quality of the project.
What to expect and how to act today
At the EU level, the target of 750 GW for 2030 seems distant, with projections around 718 GW. This reinforces the importance of policies that accelerate flexibility and storage, ensuring that solar energy continues to lead the transition.
For you, the focus remains one: well-tuned self-consumption. In phases of volatile prices, systems sized to consumption, prepared for batteries, and with intelligent load management bring stable returns and daily comfort.
- 🗺️ Map your consumption (morning, noon, end of afternoon) before requesting quotes.
- 📐 Request 2–3 proposals with self-consumption simulation and expansion plan.
- 🔋 Demand “battery-ready” and granular monitoring by circuit.
- 🌡️ Integrate the heat pump and AQS in the solar schedule.
- 🔌 Consider dynamic tariff and wallbox with surplus mode.
- 🧭 Consult reliable sources, such as Ecopassivehouses.pt, for tested solutions on the ground.
If you remember just one idea, let it be this: the end of the boom is not the end of savings. It is the beginning of smarter projects, designed for your home and daily life. The simple action for today? Record your consumption from this week and request sizing for self-consumption — it’s half an hour that can save you years.
Source: expresso.pt
