Portugal records the lowest renewable energy consumption in the last two years

The month of October brought a warning sign: the share of renewables in electricity consumption in Portugal fell to 50.2%, the lowest monthly figure in the last two years. It is worth understanding what happened and, above all, what can be done at home and in the city to make the system more resilient.

Short on time? Here are the essentials:

Portugal records the lowest renewable energy consumption in two years: causes, numbers, and what it means

When renewable production supplies only 50.2% of monthly consumption, something unusual has happened in the power system. In October, the weather combination was frankly adverse: hydropower operated at a productivity index of 0.64, wind at 0.82, and solar at 0.93 (the historical average is 1). In translation: less stored water, less useful wind, and below-ideal radiation, especially on key days. In a network where climate variability “commands” clean generation, these indices pressure the balance.

The result was felt in the mix: non-renewable production covered about 18%, and the remaining 32% came from imports. This snapshot contrasts with the year’s trend: from January to October, renewables ensured 68% of consumption, slightly below the 72% from the same period last year, but still very relevant. The breakdown shows a diversified system: about 26% hydropower, 24% wind, 13% solar, and 5% biomass.

However, there is an encouraging data point: photovoltaic production continued to accelerate, with an annual growth of around 28%. Even when the autumn sun is no longer like that of June, the expansion of projects and self-consumption keeps the graph rising. It is a clear reminder for those planning the next investment: the cost curve of solar has been friendly, and the combination with storage is starting to make more sense.

In consumption, electric demand grew about 2.5% from January to October compared to the same period last year (around 2% adjusting for temperature and working days). This surge has roots in the increased use of electrical equipment, the electrification of processes and transport, and an economy that has regained momentum. Obvious question: if demand rises and the climate fails, how to keep emissions and costs under control?

The answer lies in three fronts. First, efficiency on the consumption side, where every home and service can cut peaks with simple solutions. Second, distributed storage, which smooths solar valleys and wind gaps. Third, flexibility: shifting uses to cleaner hours, activating batteries, managing loads, and integrating dynamic contracts. These pieces, together, make this “difficult October” a surmountable test, not an inevitable disaster.

To wrap up this reading of the numbers, a concrete example: the Martins Family, in Braga, saw their bill stabilize in recent months thanks to a small bank of home batteries and a simple programmer for heating water with a heat pump. Even with fewer renewables in the system, the house consumes more during low-price/higher renewable share hours. It is exactly this kind of fine-tuning that changes the game.

Lower renewable quota, higher pressure on natural gas: impacts on costs, emissions, and supply

When clean production slows down, the system activates what is available. In October, the natural gas market recorded a significant increase, with a year-on-year rise of nearly 18% in total monthly. The segment linked to electricity production with gas skyrocketed—in year-on-year monthly terms, the evolution was over 100%, compensating for the drop in the conventional segment (industrial and commercial clients) which recorded declines between 5.8% and 7.7%.

Supply remained concentrated at the Sines LNG terminal, with the interconnection to Spain representing nearly 8%. In the year-to-date total, Nigeria and the United States stood out, responsible for about 48% and 43% of national supply, respectively. For the end consumer, what does this “fossil backup” mean? Greater exposure to international prices, market volatility, and a higher carbon footprint in meteorologically unfavorable months.

In practical terms, two effects appear on the bill and in the climate. First, the marginal cost of electricity tends to rise when gas plants come online to fill in the gap from wind and water. Second, emissions from the electricity sector increase during these periods, diluting good annual averages. That’s why managing demand is so valuable: reducing peak consumption or shifting it to times with more solar/wind is, today, as impactful as installing another panel.

Consider the case of the Atlântico Condominium in Matosinhos. The shared garage has shared chargers for electric vehicles and a simple scheduling algorithm: concentrated charging between 2 AM and 7 AM and during sunny hours on weekends. In “poor” wind weeks, the system shifts to hours of lower emission intensity and price. Result? Lower collective costs and better use of available energy.

For companies, the same logic applies with demand response contracts: reduce consumption when the system is stressed and get paid for it. In 2026, the maturity of these models has increased and digital solutions are more accessible for SMEs, which can now join with modest investments, supported by operators and aggregators.

The key message here is simple: a weak month for renewables is not a structural setback, but an invitation to strengthen resilience and flexibility. It’s the difference between enduring variability with intelligence or paying for it in cost and emissions peaks.

If you are looking for visual studies and open technical discussions on these dynamics, it is worth exploring independent analyses and comparisons with pre- and post-pandemic years, always cross-referencing data from DGEG, ADENE, and REN to avoid partial readings.

From the grid to your home: efficiency and comfort strategies to face months with fewer renewables

In a well-thought-out building, every kilowatt counts twice: it saves on the bill and reduces pressure on the grid when wind and water fail. In Portugal, improving the thermal envelope and adjusting behaviors yield quick results. When the mix gets more expensive and emits more, efficiency, management, and self-production are the trio that stabilizes costs without sacrificing comfort.

Priorities that work in any home

The first step is “silent” and lasting measures: insulation of roofs, air tightness, correction of thermal bridges, and seasonal shading. A house in Viana do Castelo reduced annual heating by 28% just by insulating the ceiling and replacing openings with airtight windows. Without changing equipment, consumption dropped during critical hours—precisely when the grid needs it the most.

In water heating and climate control, well-sized heat pumps offer high COP, especially when combined with photovoltaics and time programming. The Casa do Ribeiro, in Leiria, installed 4 kWp of PV and a 5 kWh battery: the heat pump for AQS starts in the late morning when there’s solar surplus. Result? Less nighttime consumption and lower dependency on expensive hours.

Simple gestures with systemic effects

• 📆 Schedule AQS and laundry machines for windows with more sun/wind (when possible)
• 🌡️ Set prudent setpoints: 19–20 ºC for heating and 25–26 ºC for cooling
• 🔌 Eliminate phantom loads with smart plugs and total cuts at night
• 🪟 Ensure controlled ventilation: renews the air without losing heat
• ☀️ Invest in shutters and brise-soleils to “turn off” excessive sun in the summer

Collective self-consumption in buildings is another lever. In the São Vicente Building, in Lisbon, a shared system of 30 kWp feeds units and common services, with dynamic distribution. The administrator implemented a simple rule: irrigation pumps and low-traffic elevators operate preferably between 11 AM and 4 PM. With this, the condo residents “consume their own sun” and relieve the grid in critical periods.

To close this part, a direct piece of advice: start with what you can’t see—the envelope—and then install technology that “thinks for itself” (chronothermostats, smart plugs, retailer apps). In meteorologically weak months, this set makes the difference between paying the peak or elegantly navigating around it.

Before moving on to systemic solutions, retain this idea: without efficiency in the building, any renewable kilowatt will have less impact than it could.

Planning for 2026: photovoltaic growth, storage, and flexibility as shields against variability

With photovoltaic production growing around 28% this year, 2026 imposes a clear agenda: accelerate PV, expand storage (domestic and neighborhood), encourage flexibility (V2G, dynamic tariffs, demand response), and strengthen interconnections without delaying efficiency. The key lies in balancing investments and measurable gains, both in the grid and at the block scale.

Combinations that deliver value

The “PV + Battery + Time Management” package has shown stable paybacks in homes and small businesses. 5–10 kWh batteries are sufficient to absorb daily solar surpluses and cover peaks in the late afternoon. In areas with energy communities, the “bank” can be shared, improving utilization and lowering costs per user.

In transport, smart charging is already routine in many garages. In 2026, the supply of V2G (vehicle-to-grid) has matured: corporate fleets are beginning to sell flexibility to the grid at peak times. For families, the recommendation is simple: set nighttime charging windows and, when possible, absorb solar surpluses in the middle of the day.

For municipalities, the focus can shift to “energy islands”: schools with PV, batteries, and shading that serve as energy shelters during extreme events. In neighborhoods, adaptive public lighting reduces consumption without loss of safety. The legacy is twofold: lower bills and greater community resilience.

In summary, a fall with fewer renewables does not prevent a robust year nor delay goals. It does, however, compel the acceleration of technology integration that transforms climate uncertainty into energy predictability.

How to read the numbers without falling into alarmism: from 68% this year to the monthly low of 50.2%

The numbers require context. In the year-to-date, renewables supplied 68% of electric consumption, a solid value in a country that, in 2024, had already registered months above 70%. October was a “snapshot” with wind, sun, and water below normal, not a setback film. The intra-annual evolution itself confirms: demand grew, and solar continues to expand.

To interpret monthly data, it is helpful to cross-reference three axes: climate (productivity), supply (mix and imports), and demand (consumptions and hours). When all three align unfavorably, the grid calls for gas and imports. When the sun returns and the winds blow, the balance tips back toward clean electricity. The challenge is to reduce the amplitude of this seesaw.

There are also positive signs outside the grid: gas consumption in the conventional segment has decreased, reflecting efficiency and progressive electrification. At the same time, installed photovoltaic capacity on rooftops and in parks continues to come online. This is where citizens and municipalities find actionable space with measurable impact.

What citizens and municipalities can do this quarter

For families, the priority is quick energy audits, sealing leaks, calibrating heat pumps, and programming equipment. For municipalities, pilot demand response projects in municipal buildings can serve as a lab: shifting loads, validating controls, and sharing results with the community. All of this aligns well with the publication “Energy in Numbers” and the open data from DGEG, which help guide decisions.

Consider the Vale School Center, in the interior: with PV on the roof, modest batteries, and adjusted ventilation schedules, peak consumption fell by 21%. On the weakest wind days, the school maintains comfort without triggering unnecessary simultaneous loads. For the students, the project is also a teaching tool: learning to connect comfort, energy, and climate.

If October taught anything, it was this: resilience is not a slogan, it is a set of small and repeated decisions. With each adjustment, the system becomes less exposed to the moods of the sky.

From “difficult October” to the whole year: practical checklist to stabilize costs and emissions in your home

To transform a weak month into opportunity, it is worth following a clear and actionable roadmap. This list organizes priorities by impact and ease of execution, paying attention to the reality of apartments and houses.

Essential (and realistic) checklist

• 🧱 Envelope first: insulate the roof and seal leaks; fast return and immediate comfort
• 🪟 Glass and frames: eliminate condensation, noise, and thermal losses
• 🌡️ Heat pumps: AQS and climate control with high COP; program outside peaks
• ☀️ PV 3–6 kWp: start with the roof; assess 5–10 kWh batteries when there are surpluses
• 🔁 Simple automation: chronothermostats, smart plugs, retailer apps
• 🚗 EV charging: nighttime windows and solar midday; consider condominium sharing
• 🤝 Energy communities: collective self-consumption for buildings and streets
• 📊 Right contract: dynamic or bi-hourly tariffs for “surfing” prices and emissions

A quick example closes the idea: in the Pombal Neighborhood, in Évora, two neighboring buildings created an energy community. One had a large roof; the other had higher daytime consumption. With digital sharing, the surplus of one covers the peak of the other. Even in a “thin” month of wind, the combination kept the bill under control.

If you have to choose one action for today, make a simple schedule: AQS between 11 AM–4 PM on sunny days and higher-consuming equipment outside of 7 PM–9 PM. It is a discreet gesture that stabilizes costs and helps the grid breathe when the sky does not cooperate.

Keep this sentence in mind: when the climate fails, good architecture and good management come into play—and both are within your reach.

Source: cnnportugal.iol.pt