Tomorrow is green, but today is still dominated by oil

Tomorrow is green because clean electricity is already cheaper, scalable, and desirable. But today, the real economy remains anchored in oil, especially in transport, heavy industry, and petrochemicals.

Green transition in 2026: because tomorrow is renewable, but the present is still dominated by oil

Renewable electricity has become cheap and scalable, with solar energy leading and wind not far behind. In 2024, over US$ 2 trillion were allocated to clean technologies, nearly double the capital allocated to oil, gas, and coal. Nonetheless, the global primary energy matrix remained at ~76% fossil fuels (oil ~29.7%, coal ~24.6%, and gas ~22.7%). In 2026, this ratio changes slowly, not due to a lack of feasibility for renewables but because of infrastructural inertia and dependencies on industrial and logistical processes.

Oil continues to be the “glue” of energy chains that do not electrify overnight. Road freight, aviation, and segments of petrochemicals maintain hydrocarbons as critical inputs. Even with electric vehicles growing robustly, the global fleet is predominantly combustion engines, and the replacement cycle is long. The International Energy Agency signaled that between 2025 and 2026, oil supply may grow faster than demand, a warning that the market balance is still shaped by traditional variables.

Meanwhile, China has been pushing the transition frontier: in 2024, it generated around 3,500 TWh of renewable electricity, nearly four times the production of the USA (~875 TWh) and well above the EU (~1,000 TWh). The net increase in Chinese electrical production was 623 TWh, mostly clean: 276 TWh from solar, 168 TWh from wind, 109 TWh from hydropower, and 49 TWh from nuclear. At the same time, battery storage tripled in three years, making the grid more flexible. This movement reduces the “strategic” margin that oil holds as a reliability reserve.

Europe and Portugal are also progressing. In 2024, the country approached 40% renewables in primary energy (14% hydropower, 13% wind, 7% solar, and 5% others), but still had ~60% fossil fuels (46% oil, 14% gas). The challenge is less technical and more systemic: logistics, mobility, and industry were optimized over decades for liquid fuels and supply networks based on pipelines, refineries, and truck fleets. Changing this DNA requires time, capital, and coordinated management.

However, there is a decisive factor: storage. Without durable and affordable batteries, intermittent renewables force the electrical system to rely on fossil fuels as backup. Reservoirs act as “natural batteries,” and pumped hydro helps balance excess solar and wind, but the scale needed to replace oil and gas is enormous. Until this pillar matures fully, oil retains prominence.

The message for 2026 is pragmatic: the cost curve already favors green, yet the asset turnover time and storage maturity dictate the real speed. Key insight: price drives the transition, but infrastructure enables it.

How to reduce your energy bill today without waiting for 2050: practical and accessible measures

While the macroeconomy adjusts infrastructures, your home can take concrete steps now. The aim is simple: consume less, electrify what is possible, and manage energy well. By addressing losses and replacing inefficient systems with mature solutions, you cut costs and reduce dependence on oil, while enjoying superior comfort and more predictable maintenance.

Efficiency first: the cheapest kWh is the one you don’t consume

Start with the thermal envelope. Insulation in roofs, facades, and floors, efficient window frames, and infiltration control eliminate waste. Low-emissivity double glazing with thermal break and adjustable shading reduces peaks in summer and losses in winter. For existing buildings, phased interventions make sense: sealing frames, replacing bulbs with LEDs and programmable thermostats already deliver quick gains.

Electrify comfort: heat pump and smart DHW

Replacing gas or oil boilers with reversible heat pumps, linked to low-temperature underfloor heating or fan coils, is a leap in efficiency. For Domestic Hot Water, solar thermosiphons or dedicated heat pumps decrease consumption and emissions. If solar panels are installed, schedule DHW heating during peak solar production hours to “store” energy in the form of heat.

Solar photovoltaic and active management

Solar energy is now the cheapest way to produce electricity. Even with the physical limit of ~1,000 W/m² of irradiation at noon, a well-sized system covers a good portion of daytime consumption. Inverters with monitoring, integrated electric vehicle chargers, and home batteries of 5–15 kWh allow for optimized self-consumption. In buildings, shared energy communities maximize local use, diluting costs.

• 🔧 Quick check-up: sealing doors/windows, bleeding radiators, and tuning boilers or heat pumps.
• 🌞 Solar on the roof: prioritize unshaded areas and angles between 15–35°.
• 🔋 Residential battery: start small (5–7 kWh) and expand as prices curve down.
• 🚗 Smart charging: schedule the EV for peak production or reduced rate hours.
• 📱 Simple automation: smart plugs and sensors to turn off hidden loads.

Realistic example: in a T3 in Braga, replacing a gas boiler with a heat pump and 5 kW of PV reduced the annual bill by ~40% and cut hours of fossil fuel use while maintaining comfort. Tools and practical guides are available on specialized platforms like Ecopassivehouses.pt, which gather field experiences and tested solutions.

If you want immediate action, prioritize this trio: insulation, heat pump, and solar. Final message: oil dominates the system, but it doesn’t have to dominate your home.

China, costs, and scale: lessons to accelerate independence from oil in your project

The Chinese numbers show that the transition accelerates when costs fall, and industry delivers volume. In 2024, China invested about US$ 625 billion in clean energy, 31% of the global total. In addition to solar and wind, network modernization and leaps in storage created an ecosystem capable of adding 1,000 TWh of electricity in 18–24 months when needed. What does this teach for your project?

Four lessons applicable now

First: standardization. Equipment with common standards and robust assembly lines drive down prices and timelines. When specifying materials and systems, choose solutions with a consolidated supply chain. Second: total electrification of what is viable. Cooking, heating, and cooling with renewable electricity eliminates exposure to gas and oil. Third: distributed storage. Small residential and commercial batteries smooth peaks and absorb local surpluses, reducing the need for fossil “backup”. Fourth: digital management. Measurement, automation, and programming turn kilowatts into predictable comfort.

Urban case studies show that neighborhoods with distributed generation, heat pumps, and electric mobility reduce demand for liquid fuels without sacrificing services. Even the famous Three Gorges Dam (22.5 GW), producing nearly 100 TWh/year, illustrates the role of firm and flexible sources when calibrated with solar and wind. The message is clear: scale and integration are key.

A note of realism: China will continue to use more oil until nearly 2030, balancing growth and energy security. Nonetheless, the renewable advancements and storage moving toward more accessible parities tend to reduce the oil intensity of the economy. If cost leadership is accompanied by smart urban policies, dependence on oil will fall faster.

For those planning renovations or rehabilitations, focus on three project decisions with great impact: orientation and shading to reduce thermal loads, selection of efficient electrical equipment with performance curves suitable for the local climate, and provision for space for future batteries and vehicle charging. This avoids regrets and opens doors for upgrades without major disruption.

Practical summary: copy what works — scale, standardization, and management — and adapt it to your reality. Key idea: the price is already on your side, use the project to capture this benefit.

If you want to explore integration solutions with energy networks and communities, look for videos demonstrating real-year load and self-consumption simulations; this type of content shortens the learning curve.

Energy storage is the game changer: from the physical limit of solar to systems that free the system from oil

Without large-scale storage and flexibility, the electricity system remains hostage to fossil “backup.” Solar energy is intermittent and respects physical limits: even at noon, irradiation hovers around ~1,000 W/m², and at night the output is zero. Wind energy varies with the wind. To transform this variability into reliability, it is necessary to combine batteries, pumped hydro, demand management, and eventually other technologies (like hydrogen for specific uses).

How to close the gap between supply and demand

First, short-duration batteries (2–8 hours) smooth daily peaks. In neighborhoods and industries, they absorb excess afternoon solar and return it at night. Second, hydro-pumping works as a large-scale battery: it pumps water to higher elevations when there is surplus and turbines when there is shortage. Third, demand flexibility shifts loads — climate control, DHW, EV charging — to favorable times. Fourth, grid reinforcements and digitization allow coordination of thousands of distributed assets.

The numbers help calibrate expectations. In 2024, China tripled battery storage in three years, a sign that costs and maturity are trending in the right direction. Large hydropower plants like Three Gorges (~100 TWh/year) offer firm capacity but do not alone solve seasonal or daily intermittency in entire regions. Therefore, the architecture of the new system is multidimensional: many layered solutions communicate with each other.

For residential buildings, a battery of 5–15 kWh already allows substantial gains in self-consumption. In commerce and services, 50–200 kWh combined with load management and photovoltaics reduce tariff peaks. Industrial parks can explore hybrid systems with pumping, battery banks, and flexibility contracts. As it scales, oil ceases to be the “universal insurance” of reliability, becoming just a strategic reserve.

There are also geographical and urban limits. Floating solar panels at sea increase available area and benefit from natural cooling, but are far from consumption centers; they require cables, conversion, and loss management. In energy island contexts, a microgrid with PV, wind, batteries, and safety generators reduces diesel use to residual levels.

Practical conclusion of this part: store when you can, flex when you can’t, and design your installation to grow with falling prices. Key phrase: it is storage that transforms cheap kWh into energy security.

Mobility, cities, and smart choices: cutting oil dependence without losing quality of life

The transport sector continues to be the “heart” of oil. The historical bet on highways and trucks, instead of electrified rail, prolonged European and Portuguese dependence on liquid fuels. In 2026, the solution lies in electrifying mobility, optimizing logistics, and redesigning urban layout for shorter distances and active modes.

What works in practice

Electric buses in dedicated corridors, night charging with optimized tariffs, and simplified maintenance have shown a reduction in operating costs and improvement in air quality. Municipal waste collection fleets are already migrating to electric and biogas. For goods, combining electrified rail for “long-distance” and urban electric fleets for the “last mile” reduces fuel and noise. Electric bicycles and micromobility solve trips up to 5–7 km quickly and comfortably.

Urban design plays a decisive role. Mixed-use neighborhoods bring services closer, shorten trips, and make active mobility viable. Smart parking, low-emission zones, and consolidation logistics platforms prevent trucks from running empty. Portuguese cities that tested time windows for delivery in the historic center observed less congestion and better logistics for merchants.

1. 🚆 Prioritize rail for interurban goods; predictability and lower energy cost per ton-km.
2. 🚌 Renovate bus fleets with electric and charging points at depots.
3. 🏙️ Plan mixed-use neighborhoods that shorten daily commutes.
4. 🔌 Charging infrastructure in buildings and streets, with power management to avoid spikes.
5. 🚲 Safe micromobility integrated with public transport stations.

And the economy? Oil volatility weighs on municipal and business budgets. The IEA has warned that supply may exceed demand in some scenarios for 2025–2026, but that does not eliminate price volatility. Reducing the oil intensity of fleets and supply chains creates resilience against external shocks. Industrial programs, like the Brazilian focus on flex-fuel vehicles, exemplify transition strategies for specific contexts, even though the battery supply chain needs to mature.

For you, as a user, choices also matter: an urban electric vehicle, a well-utilized public transport pass, and an electric bicycle transform routines and cut dependence on weekly refueling. If your home has photovoltaics, scheduling the car charging during solar hours increases self-consumption and reduces the bill. If not, energy contracts with off-peak periods help optimize costs.

Message to take with you: well-designed cities and mobility reduce oil without reducing freedom. The secret is to align infrastructure, management, and good everyday choices.

Source: expresso.pt